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MNF Betting Preview: Dolphins Haven’t Covered in Eight Straight Monday Games

The AFC East has been Tom Brady’s personal playground for a decade and a half, and the New England Patriots have once again dominated the division in 2017. The reigning Super Bowl champions take their talents to South Beach in the Week 14 edition of Monday Night Football to battle the Miami Dolphins.

MyBookie opened the Fish as 11-point home underdogs with a total of 47.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Patriots’ last three games against the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games vs divisional opponents.

At 10-2 SU, the Patriots are in no danger of missing the playoffs, but they need to be careful not to look too far ahead to Week 15’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Pats won 35-14 in Miami in Week 17 a year ago to clinch home-field advantage in the postseason, but they had lost their previous three in south Florida before that game.

The Dolphins’ playoff aspirations are starting to slip away at 5-7 SU, and a loss in this one would make the trek even tougher. Bettors should be wary of the Dolphins due to past lackluster performances on Monday Night Football. In the Dolphins’ last eight Monday tilts, they’re 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS. Yikes.

Miami ended a five-game losing streak by beating a bad Denver Broncos team 35-9 last week, with Jay Cutler returning from a one-game injury absence to throw for 235 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins last met the Patriots in Week 12 when they lost 35-17 at Gillette Field.

While the Dolphins haven’t been getting the job done at night, it’s been the opposite story for the Pats. New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 night games. Bill Belichick and company have covered the spread in six straight heading into this one.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks, including Bovada, had set the Miami Dolphins as 10.5-point underdogs on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 48.5 earlier in the week; check for the current OVER/UNDER lines at MyBookie).

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas picked a 35-11 win for the Patriots. Injuries during the week may cause the formula to be re-run, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Miami brings a 5-7 record (4-6-2 ATS) to the Week 14 betting matchup against the 10-2 New England Patriots, who are 8-4 against the spread. OVER/UNDER betting has seen Miami go 7-5 so far and the Patriots go 6-6. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Miami vs New England injuries news.

The Dolphins sit at No. 31 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Patriots are at No. 2 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Miami's No. 30-ranked offense, averaging 15.82 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 11 this week at 20 PPG. The Dolphins aerial game is averaging 206.64 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 270.36 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 10-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 109.17 yards per game when on the road. Miami, on the other hand, rates No. 29 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Rob Gronkowski hauled in 9 passes for 147 yards against the Buffalo defense in the team's last game, leading New England over the Bills 23-3 on Sunday.

Kenyan Drake went over the 100-yard mark (120) in his team's latest effort as Miami defeated Denver by a score of 35-9 on Sunday.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
  • New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
  • Miami is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
  • Miami is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England at Pittsburgh, Sunday, December 17
Miami at Buffalo, Sunday, December 17