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Leafs have been decent bet at home as they try to extend series vs Bruins

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home with their season on the line in Game 6 vs the Boston Bruins tonight. The Leafs are down 3-2 in the series and despite dropping an ugly Game 4 loss at home, they’ve been a solid bet at the ACC, winning 17 of their last 20 games in the T-Dot. Toronto opened as a slight dog at home to stay alive and force a Game 7.

SHARK BITES
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Leafs’ last seven games with one day off between games.
  • The Maple Leafs are 0-4 SU in their last four games after a win.
  • The Bruins are 21-9 SU in their last 30 games vs divisional opponents.

The Leafs took care of business in Game 5 with a 4-3 win but Leafs backers probably endured a small case of PTSD during that tilt with the Leafs almost blowing a 4-1 lead, reminiscent of the end of Toronto’s 2013 playoff run in Game 7 vs the Bruins.

The Buds scored the fourth goal on their 13th shot of the game, which chased Tuukka Rask to the bench. But the problem again for the Leafs is they were outshot badly in Game 4 at 45-21, which has been a regular occurrence in this series, with the edge going to the Bruins 176-143 through five games. If bettors are banking on a Game 7, they should know that Toronto is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six games at home vs the B’s, outscoring them 20-13 in those contests.

As for the Bruins, they’ve been a great team responding to a loss as Boston is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games in the following game after a defeat. The Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron was reunited in Game 5 after Bergeron was a scratch in Game 4. But the trio was kept off the scoresheet for the second time this series and it shouldn’t be a coincidence that when Boston’s top line doesn’t notch a point in the game, Toronto has taken the victory. The Bruins will go back to Rask between the pipes. He owns a 2.60 goals-against average and .904 save percentage in five starts this postseason.

The total opened at 6 and the OVER has been profitable when these two teams collide. The OVER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 6.75 goals per game.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks such as Bovada had the Toronto Maple Leafs as -107 underdogs earlier today. The OVER/UNDER opened at 6 at MyBookie for betting fans hoping to turn a profit on totals.

OddsShark computer prediction formulas pick a 3.6-2 win for the Bruins on Monday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Toronto will face the 53-22-12 Bruins. In totals betting, the Maple Leafs are 44-36-7 in OVER/UNDER betting so far this season while the Bruins are 39-43-5. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Toronto vs Boston injuries news.

This game puts the Maple Leafs, most recently No. 1 in the OddsShark NHL Power Rankings, up against the Bruins, who rate a No. 2 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Toronto Maple Leafs' No. 4-ranked offense (3.33 goals per game) against a Boston Bruins defense that ranks No. 3 at 2.61 goals per game allowed. The Maple Leafs power play has clicked at a 25.11% rate while the Bruins have a 83.2% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

 

Betting Trends
  • Boston is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 11 games on the road
  • Boston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of Toronto's last 25 games
  • Toronto is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
  • Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Boston
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Boston

Next Betting Matchups

Boston home to Toronto, Wednesday, April 25

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