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Penguins have been a tough sell at home recently

The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a do-or-die mode as they return home to host the Washington Capitals in Game 6 tonight. The Penguins got rolled 6-3 in Game 5 in Washington and now will need to win back-to-back games in order to advance to the Eastern Conference final. Pittsburgh has had a bit of a letdown at home lately, dropping three of its last four games, but opened as a large -190 favorite to hold home serve and force a Game 7.

  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Capitals’ last seven games with a closing total of 6.0 or more.
  • The Capitals are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games with one day off between games.
  • Pittsburgh’s Jake Guentzel leads the playoffs with 21 points.

The Capitals took care of business on their home ice and have a little more jump in their step compared to years past in the playoffs. The Caps were down twice in Game 5 before roaring back and taking the lead for good in the third period. Jakub Vrana and Evgeni Kuznetsov paced Washington in scoring and secondary scorers have helped relieve some of the pressure on Alex Ovechkin to carry the offense. Goaltender Braden Holtby has also fared well, stopping 36 of 39 shots in Game 6, and has shown up on the road in the postseason with a 4-1 SU record, 2.40 goals-against average and .917 save percentage. If bettors are wagering on the Capitals, they’ll be thrilled to know that Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road.

As for the Penguins, goal scoring hasn’t been an issue (3.73 goals per game in playoffs) but defensively, they’ve been exploited these past few games as they’ve allowed 15 goals in their last four. Matt Murray has been a little shaky between the pipes in the playoffs with a 2.90 goals-against average and an .899 save percentage and if he doesn’t stand tall, the Penguins’ strategy of outscoring teams may not be a recipe for success. However, the trends may be pointing to a Pittsburgh victory tonight as the Penguins are 20-6 SU in their last 26 games at home and are 4-0 SU in playoff elimination games since head coach Mike Sullivan took his spot behind the bench.

The total opened at 6 and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup with an average combined score of 5.7 goals per game.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Pittsburgh Penguins were listed earlier today as -235 moneyline favorites at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark (including Bovada), while oddsmakers set the opening betting total around 5.5.

OddsShark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game pick a 3-2.4 victory for the Capitals. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NHL matchups here.

Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 53-34-6 so far on the season. The Washington Capitals, meanwhile, are 56-28-9. OVER/UNDER betting fans have seen Pittsburgh go 51-37-5 and the Capitals go 52-39-2 on the totals. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Pittsburgh vs Washington injuries news.

The Penguins sit at No. 5 in the current NHL power poll here at OddsShark, while the Capitals sit at No. 7 on the same chart.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Pittsburgh Penguins' No. 3-ranked offense (3.37 goals per game) against a Washington Capitals defense that ranks No. 13 at 2.9 goals per game allowed. The Penguins power play has clicked at a 25.74% rate while the Capitals have a 80.06% rate on the penalty kill.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Betting Trends
  • Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Washington is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
  • Washington is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
  • Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
  • Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
  • Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing Washington

Next Betting Matchups

Washington home to Pittsburgh, Wednesday, May 9